Libya Steps Toward Democracy

With today’s national elections for Parliament, the country continues to move beyond the Qaddafi era.

---

MORE FROM THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

• 
  Civilians and Drones
  
• 
  The Widening U.S.-Pakistan Rift
  
• 
  Economics vs. Politics in Egypt
  
• 
  The Future of Afghan Women
  

---

Although Libyan officials earlier postponed National Assembly elections by 18 days for organizational reasons, they have stuck to their new deadline. On July 7, some 2.8 million registered voters in a country of about 6.7 million people
are expected to head to the polls in the country’s first national
post-Qaddafi election. Libya has made
substantial progress in its political transition while facing
significant ongoing challenges, including controlling militias and dealing with regional tensions.
This Saturday, Libyans will vote for the 200 people who will comprise
the National Assembly. Eighty seats are reserved for political parties
and the other 120 seats will go to individual candidates. The scale and
complexity of the election are notable: around 3,700 candidates
are running and more than 140 political parties and civil society
organizations are involved. The National Assembly will play an important
role in moving the country forward as it will be tasked with appointing
a prime minister and a group to write a new constitution.

Because political polling in Libya is virtually nonexistent, it is
hard to get a sense of Libyans’ voting preferences, but it is clear that
religion and identity politics will play a vital role. Two of the three
most visible parties are clearly campaigning on an Islamic platform.
The Justice and Development Party, associated with the Muslim
Brotherhood, is led by Mohamed Sowan,
who spent eight years as a political prisoner during Qaddafi’s rule. If
the Muslim Brotherhood’s electoral success in both Tunisia and Egypt
provides any clue, the Justice and Development Party may achieve
significant gains, although the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya does not
have the historical roots that it does in Tunisia and Egypt. The
Homeland Party is led by Abdel Hakim Belhadj,
an anti-Qaddafi insurgent who spent seven years in prison during
Qaddafi’s time. Belhadj has alleged past ties to Al-Qaeda leaders, and
he is pursuing a legal case related to the US and British rendition
programs that he says led to his torture by Libyan intelligence.
Bellhadj casts himself as a moderate Muslim, and a prominent Salafi
cleric has endorsed the party.

Led by former interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril, the secular National Forces Alliance
represents a wide range of allied groups and individuals, and is
supported by liberal and business interests. Jibril’s party also faces
the pressure of identity politics. As Jibril, who is not a candidate in
this election, recently stated,
“I had to say publicly that I am not secular … I was afraid if I don’t
say this … people will be preoccupied when they go to the ballot by
whether (I am) secular or not secular.”  There is no doubt that this
election is more about candidates’ identities than their policy
proposals–but this is not surprising for a country that had banned
political parties for decades.

Whether Libyan women will end up with any significant political representation also remains a major question. Forty-five percent
of registered voters are women–solid, but imperfect, progress. In
theory, half of the 80 seats reserved for political parties are supposed
to go to women because political party lists are required to contain equal numbers of men and women. However, current party lists feature approximately
662 men and 540 women, so it is highly unlikely that women will get all
40 seats. Independent candidates will occupy the other 120 seats in the
National Assembly, but women comprise less than 3.5 percent of independent candidates.

Many fear that violence and other forms of unrest will throw sand into the gears of this historic election. Recently, suspected arson damaged voting equipment and ballots in an eastern Libyan town. In Benghazi, small attacks
have occurred against international convoys and consulates, and Islamic
militias have protested against democratic elections, tearing down
campaign posters. In May, I wrote about
Libya’s regional tensions and the oil-rich eastern part of the
country’s demands for greater autonomy and possibly even a federalist
system of government. Now, on the eve of the election, an eastern group
called the Barqa Council (which has an independent armed force) is urging
voters to boycott the elections, claiming that the seats in the
National Assembly are unfairly apportioned among the country’s regions.

But there is reason for optimism. If local Libyan elections held
earlier this year are any indication of things to come, the National
Assembly election process may go more smoothly than many are predicting.
Libyans enthusiastically turned out in Misrata and Benghazi
to cast their ballots, and a handful of smaller cities also held local
elections. Additionally, the Libyan elections commission has taken
appropriate measures like inviting Carter Center observers into the country. Above all, around 80 percent
of eligible Libyans are registered voters–a strong indication that many
Libyans are eager to vote and want these elections to go smoothly.

This article originally appeared at CFR.org, an Atlantic partner site.